Hawking's Brief Answers to the Big Questions: Predictable Futures?

Summary: Predictable futures occupy fourth place in 10 inquiries that theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking organizes into Brief Answers to the Big Questions.

Stephen Hawking considers German-born theoretical physicist Albert Einstein (March 14, 1879-Aug. 7, 1941) as "probably the most remarkable scientist who has ever lived." In a conversation July 14, 1930, with Bengali 1913 literature Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (May 7, 1861-Aug. 7, 1941), 1921 physics Nobel Laureate Albert Einstein observed: "I believe that whatever we do or live for has its causality; it is good, however, that we cannot see through to it;" photo of Albert Einstein (left) with Rabindranath Tagore (right) by American portrait photographer Martin Vos, Berlin, Germany, July 14, 1930: Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Predictable futures arrive in fourth place in the arrangement of 10 asked and answered questions by a world-renowned theoretical physicist into his last work, posthumously published by Bantam Books Oct. 15, 2018.

Stephen Hawking (Jan. 8, 1942-March 14, 2018) builds the fourth chapter in Brief Answers to the Big Questions around the query "Can we predict the future?" The co-contributor to the five-authored The Future of Space-Time June 17, 2003, considers, "In principle, the laws [governing the universe] allow us to predict the future." Discovery of black holes and quantum mechanics nevertheless demands that "The short answer is no, and yes" since "in practice the calculations are often too difficult."

Explanations of natural events evolved from behavior-modifying, gift-giving efforts by anxious worshippers to encourage "capricious and whimsical" ancient deities to ease up on unpredictable, violent exploits.

Observable regular movement across night skies founded the first science, astronomy, whose mathematical basis Isaac Newton (Jan. 4, 1643-March 31, 1727) formulated with gravity and motion.

That natural phenomena such as planets go by scientific laws such as Newtonian gravitational motion theory generated Pierre-Simon Laplace's (March 23, 1749-March 5, 1827) scientific determinism. The French scientist held that known positions and speeds in present times herald their counterparts in predictable futures and predictable pasts for all the universe's particles. Complex equations with chaos properties interfere with predictable futures for hot-body radiation rates of lost gamma ray, infra-red, radio wave, ultraviolet, visible light and X-ray energy.

Max Planck (April 23, 1858-Oct. 4, 1947) joined radiation amounts and certain-sized quanta (packets) with high-energy ultra-violet light and X-rays and low-energy infra-red and visible light.

The Planck quantum mechanics hypothesis of 1900 kindled observing elementary particles that keep spin slowdowns to discrete, quantized, quick, not continuously variable, multiples of basic units.

Werner Heisenberg (Dec. 5, 1901-Feb. 1, 1976) launched the Uncertainty Principle of uncertain particle position times uncertain speed exceeding Planck's constant divided by twice particle mass. The Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle means that "lousy data" make "lousy predictions" since measuring particle position mismeasures speed and measuring particle speed mismeasures position in present times.

Natural randomness needled Albert Einstein (March 14, 1879-April 18, 1955), who noted that "God does not play dice" with the universe's needing "well-defined" positions and speeds. John Bell (June 28, 1928-Oct. 1, 1990) observed that "the results [of experimental tests] were inconsistent with hidden variables" that Einsteinian opposition to natural randomness occasions.

Quantum mechanics theory in the 1940s presents wave function ("a number at each point of space") size for probable particle position and variation rate for speed.

Wave function queues up position and speed in present times and, with Erwin Schrödinger's (Aug. 12, 1887-Jan. 4, 1961) wave equation on wave-like particles, predictable futures. Quantum mechanics results in certain predictions of wave function position and speed and uncertain predictions of particle position and speed together, unobservable space and warped space-time. Gravity-bound interiors of collapsed stars suggest black holes that, through uncertainty and unobservability in principle and practice, subvert scrutinizing particle and wave function position and speed.

Gravity-bound motion of planets and stars and wave function for particles track, respectively well and somewhat, position and speed into predictable futures in non-warped, observable space-time.

Stephen Hawking's chapter on a predictable versus an unpredictable future considers Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger's research into particle appearance, disappearance and reappearance; lighting conditions make life-sized cat figure appear alive or dead, in garden of Huttenstrasse 9, Zurich, Switzerland, where Erwin Schrödinger lived between 1921 and 1926: Koogid, CC BY SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Stephen Hawking considers German-born theoretical physicist Albert Einstein (March 14, 1879-April 18, 1955) as "probably the most remarkable scientist who has ever lived." In a conversation July 14, 1930, with Bengali 1913 literature Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (May 7, 1861-Aug. 7, 1941), 1921 physics Nobel Laureate Albert Einstein observed: "I believe that whatever we do or live for has its causality; it is good, however, that we cannot see through to it;" photo of Albert Einstein (left) with Rabindranath Tagore (right) by American portrait photographer Martin Vos, Berlin, Germany, July 14, 1930: Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons @ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Einstein_and_Tagore_Berlin_14_July_1930.jpg

Stephen Hawking's chapter on a predictable versus an unpredictable future considers Austrian physicist Erwin Schrödinger's research into particle appearance, disappearance and reappearance; lighting conditions make life-sized cat figure appear alive or dead, in garden of Huttenstrasse 9, Zurich, Switzerland, where Erwin Schrödinger lived between 1921 and 1926: Koogid, CC BY SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons @ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Schroedinger_cat.jpg

For further information:

Hawking, Stephen. 2018. "[Chapter] 4 Can We Predict the Future?" Brief Answers to the Big Questions. New York NY: Bantam Books.

Hawking, Stephen; Kip S. Thorne; Igor Novikov; Timothy Ferris; Alan Lightman. 2003. The Future of Space-Time. Introduction by Richard Price. New York NY: W.W. Norton & Company Ltd.

Marriner, Derdriu. 25 October 2018. "Brief Answers to Big Questions: Divine Creation, Scientific Creation?" Earth and Space News. Thursday.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2018/10/brief-answers-to-big-questions-divine.html

Marriner, Derdriu. 1 November 2018. "Cosmological Beginnings in Hawking's Brief Answers to Big Questions." Earth and Space News. Thursday.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/cosmological-beginnings-in-hawkings.html

Marriner, Derdriu. 8 November 2018. "Intelligent Life in Hawking's Brief Answers to Big Questions." Earth and Space News. Thursday.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/intelligent-life-in-stephen-hawkings.html