Two Pronged Global Warming Could Cause Rapid West Antarctica Melt

Summary: Current two pronged global warming could cause a rapid West Antarctica melt that is still stoppable, according to a Nature study published March 30.

Image, based on analysis of weather station and satellite data, depicts Antarctic warming trend from 1957 through 2006; dark red identifies West Antarctica as most warmed region per decade; orange = smaller warming trend; white = no observable change: Image courtesy Trent Schindler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio, Freely available for re-publication or re-use, via NASA Earth Observatory

Limiting the average global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius would stop the greenhouse gas-driven, two-pronged attack by atmospheric and oceanic warming currently threatening a super rapid West Antarctica melt by 2100, according to a study published online March 30, 2016, in Nature.

“Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated,” lead author Robert M. DeConto, professor of geosciences at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and co-author David Pollard, senior scientist at Pennsylvania State University’s Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, state in the article’s abstract.

Three Representative Carbon Pathway (RCP) scenarios evaluate the factor of greenhouse gas emissions on the 1950 to 2500 timeline of the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rises. Scenarios range from mitigated to unabated greenhouse gas emissions.

The worst case scenario, RCP8.5, based on uncurbed greenhouse gas emissions, predicts a rapid West Antarctica melt that includes the onset of a major ice sheet retreat around 2050.

The ice sheet-climate model’s RCP2.6 scenario, however, balances the drastically rapid West Antarctica melt predicted by RCP8.5. The optimistic RCP2.6 scenario limits the average global temperature to a rise of only 2 degrees Celsius and flatlines, registering no rises in Antarctic contribution to global mean sea level (GMSL), across the 450-year-timeline from 2050 to 2500.

The ice sheet-climate model developed by the two paleoclimatologists sweeps backward and forward across time. The model suggests future scenarios based upon insights gleaned from past simulations. Sea-level estimates for the Last Interglacial Period (LIG) and the Pliocene Epoch (PO), as points on a warm past timeline, calibrate the ice sheet-climate model that is applied to the three long-term future Representative Carbon Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The Antarctic ice sheet’s apparent instability, driven by super sensitivity to climate warming, emerges as the major player in sea-level rises.

DeConto and Pollard find in their abstract that “Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6 to 9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability.”

To clarify a melting Antarctic ice sheet’s contributions to sea-level rises, the ice sheet-climate model considers rapid ice melting processes, or mechanisms, specific to the Last Interglacial and to the Pliocene. Maximum rates of collapse into the ocean by vertical ice cliffs characterize the contribution of Antarctica’s melting retreat to sea-level rises of 6 to 9 meters (19.68 to 29.5 feet) during the Last Interglacial Period. Ocean temperature-driven melt rates of the sub-ice-shelf and hydrofracturing, or water-caused crevassing, of low-lying floating ice shelves explain a melting Antarctica’s contribution to the Pliocene’s sea-level rises of 10 to 30 meters (32.8 to 98.4 feet). Atmospheric warming drives Antarctic hydrofracturing via the pools of surface meltwater and rainfall associated with warming air temperatures.

The breakup of hydrofractured ice shelves exposes grounding line ice cliffs that extend below sea level to their deep bedrock seat and rise to dizzying heights above sea level. Removal of the protective buttress afforded by the ice shelves that fringe the Antarctic ice sheet exploits ice cliffs' vulnerability to collapse, under the pressure of their great weight, into the ocean.

The mechanisms of atmospherically-warmed, fractured ice shelves and of ocean-warmed, unstable ice cliffs are known processes. DeConto and Pollard’s ice sheet-climate model is the first to incorporate the “previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs” as analytical values for simulations.

The researchers find that the two-pronged attack from atmospheric warming as well as oceanic warming could cause a rapid West Antarctica melt in a future simulation covering 550 years from 1950 to 2500. High greenhouse gas emissions drive atmospheric warming’s takeover from oceanic warming as the main cause of rapid Antarctic ice loss. Oceanic warming, however, delays recovery.

DeConto and Pollard’s conclude with the finding that “it is the long thermal memory of the ocean that will inhibit the recovery of marine-based ice for thousands of years after greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed.”

Antarctica, a landmass enclosed by oceans (as opposed to the Arctic, an ocean enclosed by landmasses), is seen as a tipping point, with its enormous melted potential for raising global sea levels, in greenhouse gas-driven climate change: Nature News&Comment @NatureNews, via Twitter March 30, 2016

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Antarctica warming, 1957 to 2006; image, based on analysis of weather station and satellite data, depicts Antarctic warming trend from 1957 through 2006; dark red identifies West Antarctica as most warmed region per decade; orange = smaller warming trend; white = no observable change: Image courtesy Trent Schindler, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio, Freely available for re-publication or re-use, via NASA Earth Observatory @ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/36736/antarctic-warming-trends;
(former URL @ http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36736&src=ve)

Antarctica, a landmass enclosed by oceans (as opposed to the Arctic, an ocean enclosed by landmasses), is seen as a tipping point, with its enormous melted potential for raising global sea levels, in greenhouse gas-driven climate change: NatureNews&Comment @NatureNews, via Twitter March 30, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/715238446474858498

For further information:

DeConto, Robert M., and David Pollard. “Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise.” Nature 531 (31 March 2016): 591-597. DOI:10.1038/nature17145
Available @ http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html

NatureNews&Comment @NatureNews. "Antarctic model raises prospect of unstoppable ice collapse." Twitter. March 30, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/NatureNews/status/715238446474858498

Penn State Research Communications. "Melt Antarctica." YouTube. March 30, 2016.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8aT_EVW778

Central Government, ELN Rebels Formalize Colombian Rebel Peace Talks

Summary: Representatives of the Colombian government and of the ELN are formalizing Colombian rebel peace talks as of Wednesday, March 31, 2016.

ELN flag: Fibonacci, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Representatives of the national government and of the National Liberation Army, second largest rebel group in the Republic of Colombia, are formalizing Colombian rebel peace talks, according to announcements March 31, 2016.

The announcements bring together the representatives of Juan Manuel Santos, 32nd President of Colombia since Aug. 7, 2010, and of the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN). They come at the end of exploratory talks whose occurrences date back to the years between 2002 and 2007 and to the years since January 2014. Progression to formal stages draws to a close two years of preliminary rounds attended by governmental and rebel representatives and hosted by Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela.

Successful outcomes entail an end to 52 years of nonstop fighting since the ELN’s founding July 4, 1964, in Santander department by Fabio Vásquez Castaño.

Caracas, Venezuelan capital of Colombia’s neighbor to the east, furnished the setting for the announcement of Colombian rebel peace talks by both governmental and rebel representatives.

Fabio Vásquez Castaño (left), founder of ELN, with Father Camilo Torres Restrepo (right) in early days of ELN: pascuale sedall @pascualenriques, via Twitter March 27, 2013

The governmental representative, Frank Pearl of the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry, and the rebel representative, Antonio García, give as host countries Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador and Venezuela. They hope for success since of the three repeat host countries “The national government and the ELN express special acknowledgement and gratitude to all of them.”

A “final accord to terminate the armed conflict” is the aim of the “Agreement on Dialogues for Colombian Peace between the National Government and the ELN.”

ELN’s “moving forward on the negotiations as a result of exploratory and confidential dialogues” joins “expressed readiness for peace” in warranting a “public forum for talks.”

President Juan Manuel Santos keeps confirmation of beginning dates for Colombian rebel peace talks contingent upon resolution of such humanitarian issues as an end to kidnapping. He looks for immediate releases of remaining hostages and rejects moving "forward in a peace dialogue with the ELN while (the group) is holding people hostage." The recent release of Army Corporal Jair de Jesús Villar, abducted Feb. 3, 2016, in Segovia, Antioquia province, may be credited to the presidential push.

Marlene Camacho noted economic motivations behind release of her son, José Cabrales Camacho, government official abducted Sept. 3, 2015, from Ocaña, Norte de Santander Department. She observed that paying less than the $4 million ransom demand did not prevent her son’s return March 23, 2016, three days after the Villar release.

Jorge Hernando Nieto, National Police Commander, provided the few known details pertaining to the capture of Héctor Germán Pérez, an off-duty patrolman, March 21, 2016. The policeman’s forced pullover en route to Tiquisio, Bolívar province, and removal from his motor-bicycle into a car occupied by armed men qualifies as a kidnapping.

ELN rebels require Catholic Church representation in confidential, exploratory and formal Colombian rebel peace talks that "are based on forgiveness and show the process of reconciliation." Governmental and rebel representatives seek "a stable and lasting peace ... based on truth, justice, reparations, commitments not to repeat (the same acts) and not forgetting.”

Governmental representatives still take rebels to task for not declaring ceasefires while rebels request the body of Camilo Torres Restrepo, Louvain-educated revolutionary priest killed in 1964.

Father Camilo Torres Restrepo with Colombian peasant children (campesinos colombianos) ~ ELN members have been asking for decades for the return of the body of Louvain-educated revolutionary priest Camilo Torres Restrepo, killed by the Colombian government in 1964; la revista Cristianismo y Revolución Nº 8 (julio 1968), "Encuentro Latinoamericano Camilo Torres," page 16: Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

ELN flag: Fibonacci, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons @ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_ELN.svg

Fabio Vásquez Castaño (left), founder of ELN, with Father Camilo Torres Restrepo (right) in early days of ELN: pascuale sedall @pascualenriques, via Twitter March 27, 2013, @ https://twitter.com/pascualenriques/status/316906369812934656

Father Camilo Torres Restrepo with Colombian peasant children (campesinos colombianos) ~ ELN members have been asking for decades for the return of the body of Louvain-educated revolutionary priest Camilo Torres Restrepo, killed by the Colombian government in 1964; la revista Cristianismo y Revolución Nº 8 (julio 1968), "Encuentro Latinoamericano Camilo Torres," page 16: Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons @ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Camilo_Torres_con_campesinos_colombianos.jpg;
"Encuentro Latinoamericano Camilo Torres," via Internet Archive Wayback Machine @ https://web.archive.org/web/20170111003336/http://www.ruinasdigitales.com/revistas/CyR08.pdf

For further information:

Alsema, Adriaan. 30 March 2016. “Colombia Announces Formal Peace Talks with ELN.” Colombia Reports > Peace Talks.
Available @ http://colombiareports.com/colombia-announced-formal-peace-talks-eln-rebels/

Alsema, Adriaan. 30 March 2016. “Colombia Government, ELN Rebels Set to Announce Formal Peace Talks.” Colombia Reports > Peace Talks.
Available @ http://colombiareports.com/eln-rebels-colombia-government-set-formalize-peace-talks-report/

Alsema, Adriaan. 21 March 2016. “ELN Captures Policeman on Same Day Guerrillas Release Soldier.” Colombia Reports > News.
Available @ http://colombiareports.com/eln-captures-policeman-day-guerrillas-release-soldier/

BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking. 30 March 2016. "Colombia to start formal peace talks with second largest rebel group, ELN, after more than five decades of conflict." Twitter.
Available @ https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/715218130960838658

“Colombia and Rebels from the ELN to Hold Peace Talks.” BBC News > World > Latin America & Caribbean > 10 June 2014.
Available @ http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-27788288

“Colombia to Begin Peace Talks with ELN.” TRT World > News > Americas > Mar. 31, 2016.
Available @ http://www.trtworld.com/americas/colombia-to-begin-peace-talks-with-eln-79116

“Colombian Gov’t, ELN Agree to Peace Talks.” Daily Witness > International > March 30, 2016.
Available @ http://dailywitness.com/colombian-govt-eln-agree-to-peace-talks/

ELN Rebels Release Kidnapped Colombian Soldier.” Fox News Latino > News > March 20, 2016.
Available @ http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/03/20/eln-rebels-release-kidnapped-colombian-soldier/

“Héctor Germán Pérez, el policía que está secuestrado por el Eln.” El Tiempo > Política > 30 de marzo de 2016.
Available @ http://www.eltiempo.com/politica/justicia/el-policia-hector-german-perez-secuestrado-por-el-eln/16550200

Nullvalue. 29 June 2000. “Fundador del ELN vive en Cuba, revela Gabino.” El Tiempo > Archivo.
Available @ http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-1232846

“Pagamos mucho menos de los 4.000 millones que pidieron.” Semana > Nación > 2016/03/28.
Available @ http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/se-pago-al-eln-para-liberar-a-ramon-jose-cabrales-marlene-camacho/467066

pascuale sedall‏ @pascualenriques. 27 March 2013. "Fabio Vásquez Castaño fue un guerrillero colombiano entrenado por Fidel Castro durante los años 60's." Twitter.
Available @ https://twitter.com/pascualenriques/status/316906369812934656

“Ramón Cabrales abandonó el país por temor a seguir siendo víctima del ELN.” Zonacero > Política > Lunes 28 de Marzo de 2016.
Available @ http://zonacero.com/?q=politica/ramon-cabrales-abandono-el-pais-por-temor-seguir-siendo-victima-del-eln-57308

Kerry Malcorra Talk Week Begins March 30, 2016, in Washington D.C.

Summary: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Argentine Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra begin the Kerry Malcorra talk week in Washington D.C. March 30, 2016.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Argentina's Foreign Minister, Susana Malcorra, at the entrance of the State Department's Treaty Room: John Kerry @JohnKerry, via Twitter March 30, 2016

John Kerry, 68th Secretary of State of the United States, and Susana Malcorra, Foreign Minister of Argentina, are beginning the official Kerry Malcorra talk week with a press conference March 30, 2016.

Talks prefatory and related to the Paris Agreement signing ceremonies April 22, 2016, bring Foreign Minister Malcorra to the Harry S Truman Building in Washington D.C. Both events concern climate change, a priority issue for 44th U.S. President Barack Obama while visiting the Argentine Republic March 23, 2016, to March 24, 2016.

Secretary of State Kerry described the talks as taking place since "Argentina and the United States have a lot of issues to work on together.” He enumerated commitments “particularly on the economic front, on climate change, on energy, trade, and finally, on some of the regional challenges, particularly, for instance, Venezuela.”

Secretary of State Kerry feels that the historic talks, treaties and visits facilitate “Argentina’s restoration of its own engagement in politics in so many different issues.” He gives particular importance to all “the ways in which we can focus on a number of different issues together” during the Kerry Malcorra talk week. He hopes that the talks will lead to improved interactions with all South American countries since “Argentina has made some very important contributions already” regarding Venezuela.

Secretary of State Kerry injected one of two personal asides in presenting Foreign Minister Malcorra, “my friend and no stranger to the United States,” to reporters. He joined the First Daughters, Lady and Mother-in-law in thanking Foreign Minister Malcorra for “a wonderful reception for President Obama in Argentina” during the previous week.

Handling the First Family's reception at Air Force One's disembarkation point and participating in the Kerry Malcorra talk week keep Foreign Minister Malcorra fluent in English.

Susana Malcorra leads the Republic's Foreign Ministry since resigning as three-year chef de cabinet (head of office) to the United Nations executive offices December 10, 2015. Her resume mentions an electrical engineering degree, 14 years with IBM Argentina, management and executive positions in Telecom and a four-year United Nations field support under-secretary-generalship. It notes her affiliation with Cambiemos (Let's Change), political party of Mauricio Macri before the 57th Argentine President's involvement with Propuesta Republicana (Republican Proposal) since 2015.

Secretary of State Kerry observed that Foreign Minister Malcorra "knows us and she knows our country well" from working in the United Nations and U.S. companies.

Foreign Minister Malcorra promotes President Macri's view that "Argentina has to insert itself in the international arena to play the role that historically it has played."

The United States qualifies as "a key partner to that [view], and we plan to have a serious, predictable, and intelligent relationship with the United States." Foreign Minister Malcorra reaffirmed that "We [Argentina] just had the honor and the pleasure to host President Obama" and that "we have a lot in common." She stressed the human relations aspect of the Obama presidential administration releasing 10 years in advance the "documents that pertain to the dark times of Argentina."

Launching the Kerry Malcorra talk week takes place in the Treaty Room, "among the most beautiful rooms in the world," in the State Department's 42-room suite.

The Treaty Room, the launch site for the Kerry Malcorra talk week, is a three-room suite; east and west ante chambers flank the central, elliptically-shaped room; 7th floor, Harry S Truman Building, Foggy Bottom neighborhood, northwestern Washington DC: Public Domain, via U.S. Department of State

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Argentina's Foreign Minister, Susana Malcorra, at the entrance of the State Department's Treaty Room: John Kerry (@JohnKerry), via Twitter March 30, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/715221025747808258

The Treaty Room, the launch site for the Kerry Malcorra talk week, is a three-room suite; east and west ante chambers flank the central, elliptically-shaped room; 7th floor, Harry S Truman Building, Foggy Bottom neighborhood, northwestern Washington DC: Public Domain, via U.S. Department of State @ http://www.state.gov/s/d/rm/rls/perfrpt/2014/html/235106.htm;
Heritage Assets, Public Domain, via U.S. Department of State @ https://2009-2017.state.gov/s/d/rm/rls/perfrpt/2014/html/235106.htm

For further information:

Department of State @StateDept. 30 March 2016. "Secretary @JohnKerry welcomes #Argentina's Foreign Minister @susanamalcorra to Washington." Twitter.
Available @ https://twitter.com/StateDept/status/715196390570205185

John Kerry @JohnKerry. 30 March 2016. "Welcomed @SusanaMalcorra to @StateDept. As @POTUS said last week, #Argentina's leadership good for region & world." Twitter.
Available @ https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/715221025747808258

Marriner, Derdriu. 11 December 2015. "Argentine President Mauricio Macri Wins Presidential Office and Palace." Earth and Space News. Friday.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2015/12/argentine-president-mauricio-macri-wins.html

Marriner, Derdriu. 23 March 2016. "Buenos Aires Radio Nacional Bomb Scare During President Obama's Visit." Earth and Space News. Wednesday.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2016/03/buenos-aires-radio-nacional-bomb-scare.html

Marriner, Derdriu. 24 March 2016. "President Barack Obama Visiting Bariloche Has Presidential Precedents." Earth and Space News. Thursday.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2016/03/president-barack-obama-visiting.html

“Remarks with Argentinian Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra.” U.S. Department of State > Secretary of State John Kerry > Secretary Kerry’s Remarks > 2016 Secretary Kerry’s Remarks > Remarks by Secretary Kerry: March 2016.
Available @ http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/03/255319.htm

USA en español @USAenEspagnol. 30 March 2016. "@JohnKerry: Recibí a @SusanaMalcorra hoy. Como dijo @POTUS, liderazgo de Argentina bueno para la región y el mundo." Twitter.
Available @ https://twitter.com/USAenEspanol/status/715237280324169729

U.S. Department of State. 30 March 2016. "Secretary Kerry Meets with Foreign Minister Malcorra of Argentina." YouTube.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR8WINzOkUE

Uncommunicative X-ray Satellite Hitomi Tumbles Wildly in Orbit

Summary: Uncommunicative x-ray satellite Hitomi tumbles wildly in orbit and varies in brightness, according to JAXA updates March 27 and March 29.

Now uncommunicative x-ray satellite Hitomi launched Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2016, Japan Standard Time (JST); Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA announced, via Feb. 29 press release, Hitomi’s successful completion of its critical operation phase, which included Soft X-ray Spectrometer’s cooling system's reach of absolute temperature of 50 millidegrees (minus 273.1 degrees Celsius; minus 459.58 degrees Fahrenheit) around Monday, Feb. 22; "The Goddard team provided identical mirror assemblies for both of the Soft X-ray Telescopes aboard Hitomi. Each is 17.7 inches (45 centimeters) across and contains 1,624 precisely aligned aluminum mirror segments arranged in 203 concentric shells"; credit NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center: Generally not subject to copyright in the United States, via NASA Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio

Uncommunicative X-ray Satellite Hitomi tumbles wildly in orbit, at an altitude of around 350 miles (574 kilometers) above Earth, and displays extreme brightness variations, according to communication anomaly updates Sunday, March 27, and Tuesday, March 29, 2016, by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA.

An update issued March 29 on JAXA website’s X-ray Astronomy Satellite Hitomi page announced the receipt of short signals from the satellite via Japanese and overseas ground stations. Uchinoura Ground Station at Kyushu Island’s southwestern tip received the first signal Monday, March 28, around 10 p.m. Japan Standard Time. Chile’s Santiago Tracking Station reported receipt of the second signal March 29 around 12:30 a.m.

“JAXA has not been able to figure out the state of its health, as the time frames for receiving the signals were very short,” the update stated.

The update also shared the U.S. Joint Space Operations Center’s March 27 report of Hitomi’s separation into five pieces. The report placed Hitomi’s breakup March 26 at around 10:42 a.m. The U.S. Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) surveys and identifies artificial objects orbiting Earth.

“JAXA continues to investigate the relationship between the information from JSpOC and the communication anomaly,” the update stated.

JAXA has been observing the reported objects from two locations on southwestern Honshu Island. Radar at the Kamisaibara Space Guard Center (KSGC) detected an object located in the orbital direction of the short signal received at the Santiago Tracking Station. Telescopes at the Japan Space Forum’s Bisei Space Guard Center (BSGC) detected two objects around Hitomi’s original orbit.

A press release issued by JAXA on March 27 traced X-ray Satellite Hitomi’s current communication anomaly back to a failed communication operation that was scheduled for Saturday, March 26, at 16:40.

“Up to now, JAXA has not been able to figure out the state of health of the satellite,” the press release stated.

Paul D. Maley, an astronomer and space debris observer, observed Hitomi’s troubled acrobatics from his home base in the south central Arizona town of Carefree. He reported his observations in the Hitomi message thread on the Satellite Observations website at 3:36:24 Coordinated Universal Time.

“At 0319UT March 28 I observed Hitomi go through about 5 major rotation cycles and tracked/recorded it on video. Major peaks were at approximately 10 second intervals with minor peaks at 5 second intervals. 36 deg above the SSE, range approximately 1100km. Maximum magnitude reached +3. Other brightenings seen in between maxima. No other objects spotted in the immediate vicinity,” Maley noted.

Maley, a retired United Space Alliance project leader, described the science behind Hitomi’s wild tumbling and variable brightness in science journalist Nadia Drake’s National Geographic blog posting March 28.

“If the satellite were not tumbling, it would appear to be the same brightness. The fact that it is rotating with extreme variations in brightness indicates that it is not controlled and that some event caused it to begin its rotation,” Maley explained.

At the time of its communication anomaly, X-ray Satellite Hitomi was undergoing verification of onboard instrumentation functioning. A press release issued Leap Year Day, Monday, Feb. 29, by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA indicated a timeline of about one and one-half months for initial functional verification, followed by one and one-half months of calibration observations.

Hitomi smoothly detached from its launch vehicle, the H-IIA F30 (Flight number 30) rocket, about 14 minutes after liftoff at 5:45 p.m. Japan Standard Time, Wednesday, Feb. 17, from Japan’s Tanegashima Space Center. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA announced Hitomi’s successful completion of its critical operation phase via the agency's Feb. 29 press release. The critical operation phase refers to the period from detachment of launch vehicle to establishment of operational stability.

“The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) confirmed the completion of a sequence of important operations of the X-ray Astronomy Satellite ‘Hitomi’ (ASTRO-H), including turning the cooling system on, test operation of the Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS), and extending the Extensible Optical Bench (EOB). With this confirmation, the critical operation phase of Hitomi was completed.

“Hitomi is now in a stable condition,” explained the press release.

The press release noted that the Soft X-ray Spectrometer’s cooling system was activated after Hitomi’s successful launch. The cooling system’s successful reach of the absolute temperature of 50 millidegrees (minus 273.1 degrees Celsius; minus 459.58 degrees Fahrenheit) was achieved around Monday, Feb. 22.

Prior to its successful launch into low-Earth orbit (LEO), Hitomi was known as ASTRO-H. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA only names successfully-launched satellites. Hitomi means “pupil of the eye.” The selected name symbolizes the x-ray satellite’s mission of scrutinizing space for answers to deep questions about the universe’s evolution and structure.

JAXA’s March 29 update expressed the agency’s determination to establish contact with its valuable satellite. Excluding instruments supplied by the Canadian Space Agency, the European Space Agency and NASA, X-ray Satellite Hitomi’s cost to the Japanese government reached 31 billion yen ($273 million; €191 million).

The update closed with the statement that “JAXA will do its best to recover communications with Hitomi and investigate the cause of the anomaly.”

Satellite Tracker, created by software developer Ciprian Sufitchi, is powered by N2YO: SPACE.com @SPACEdotcom, via Twitter March 29, 2016

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Now uncommunicative x-ray satellite Hitomi launched Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2016, Japan Standard Time (JST); Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JAXA announced, via Feb. 29 press release, Hitomi’s successful completion of its critical operation phase, which included Soft X-ray Spectrometer’s cooling system's reach of absolute temperature of 50 millidegrees (minus 273.1 degrees Celsius; minus 459.58 degrees Fahrenheit) around Monday, Feb. 22; "The Goddard team provided identical mirror assemblies for both of the Soft X-ray Telescopes aboard Hitomi. Each is 17.7 inches (45 centimeters) across and contains 1,624 precisely aligned aluminum mirror segments arranged in 203 concentric shells"; credit NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center: Generally not subject to copyright in the United States; may use this material for educational or informational purposes, including photo collections, textbooks, public exhibits, computer graphical simulations and Internet Web pages; general permission extends to personal Web pages, via NASA Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio @ https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12120/; image specific URL @ https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a012100/a012120/X-ray_mirror.jpg

Satellite Tracker, created by software developer Ciprian Sufitchi, is powered by N2YO: SPACE.com @SPACEdotcom, via Twitter March 29, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/SPACEdotcom/status/714950344459948032

For further information:

Clark, Stephen. “U.S. military rules out collision as cause of Hitomi satellite’s woes.” Astronomy Now. March 30, 2016.
Available @ https://astronomynow.com/2016/03/30/u-s-military-rules-out-collision-as-cause-of-hitomi-satellites-woes/

“Current Status of Communication Anomaly of X-ray Astronomy Satellite ‘Hitomi’ (ASTRO-H)(Mar. 29).” JAXA > Topics > X-ray Astronomy Satellite ‘Hitomi’ (ASTRO-H). March 29, 2016.
Available @ http://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/astro_h/topics.html#topics7268

Drake, Nadia. “Video Shows Troubled Japanese Spacecraft Tumbling in Orbit.” National Geographic Blog: No Place Like Home. March 28, 2016.
Available @ http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/28/video-shows-troubled-japanese-spacecraft-tumbling-in-orbit/

Nadia Drake‏ @nadiamdrake. "New video shows #Hitomi tumbling through space...doesn't look good. #AstroH." Twitter. March 28, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/nadiamdrake/status/714578226073370624

Marriner, Derdriu. "Canadian ASTRO H Metrology System Nixes X-ray Telescope Camera Shake." Earth and Space News. Thursday, Feb. 11, 2016.
Available @ https://earth-and-space-news.blogspot.com/2016/02/canadian-astro-h-metrology-system-nixes.html

SPACE.com @SPACEdotcom. “Satellite Tracker and Interactive Map: How to Spot the Hitomi Satellite, Space Station & More.” Twitter. March 29, 2016.
Availabe @ https://twitter.com/SPACEdotcom/status/714950344459948032

SPACE.com Staff. “Satellite Tracker and Interactive Map: How to Spot the Hitomi Satellite, Space Station & More.” SPACE.com. March 29, 2016.
Available @ http://www.space.com/32054-satellite-tracker.html

Doomsday Clock Remains at Three Minutes to Midnight Since Jan 22, 2015

Summary: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock remains at three minutes to midnight while American TV series Madam Secretary confronts resets.

Doomsday Clock set to current display of minus 3 minutes: Yury Tarasievich, Public Domain (CC0 1.0), via Wikimedia Commons

Resetting the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock in Chicago to three minutes to midnight (the clock’s setting since Jan 22, 2015) enters popular culture via Sunday, March 27, 2016’s “On the Clock” episode of American political drama television series Madam Secretary.

The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decides the time display on the Doomsday Clock, also known as the Clock of Doom. The Doomsday Clock setting responds to threats with the potential for global destruction. Sources of annihilation include climate change, nuclear power, pandemics and dangerous technologies.

“Clock moves reflect major trends, not transient events,” explained editor Mike Moore in his historical article, “Midnight Never Came,” in the Bulletin’s November/December 1995 issue.

The Doomsday Clock is not a physical clock. The Doomsday Clock is a design created for the cover of the June 1947 edition of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Austrian-born physicist and co-editor Hyman H. Goldsmith asked artist Martyl Langsdorf, wife of Manhattan Project physicist Alexander Langsdorf, Jr., for a design to mark the Bulletin’s transition from newsletter to magazine.

Discussions by scientists who had worked on developing the Manhattan Project’s nuclear devices impressed upon Martyl the urgency of controlling atomic weapons. She switched her original choice of the symbol for uranium, nuclear weaponry’s main raw material, to the last quarter of a clock face, symbolic of countdown to the ultimate doomsday of global destruction.

The June 1947 edition debuted the Doomsday Clock, with the time displayed at seven minutes to midnight.

“It looked good to my eye,” Martyl explained her decision for the original clock time.

Doomsday Clock graph; left column with minutes to midnight, as expressed on Doomsday Clock; right column with conversion to 24-hour clock times: Fastfission, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Since its debut in 1947, the Doomsday Clock design on the Bulletin’s cover has been reset 21 times within its 15-minute range of midnight. The first reset took place with the October 1949 issue. The Bulletin's iconic mascot was advanced four minutes to display three minutes to midnight.

The precipitating event was the Soviet Union’s first nuclear weapon test, conducted Monday, Aug. 29, 1949, at Semipalatinsk, Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic (now Republic of Kazakhstan). The Cold War (1947 to 1991) Western bloc of the United States and U.S. allies interpreted the event as the beginning of an intensive arms race. On Sept. 23, 1949, 33rd U.S. President Harry Truman’s informed the American people of the Soviet test.

Russian-born biophysicist and Bulletin co-founder Eugene Rabinowitch explained the implications of the loss of nuclear weaponry monopoly by the United States in his article, “Forewarned -- But Not Forearmed,” in the October 1949 issue:

“We do not advise Americans that doomsday is near and that they can expect atomic bombs to start falling on their heads a month or a year from now; but we think they have reason to be deeply alarmed and to be prepared for grave decisions.”

The closest apocalyptic setting, at two minutes to midnight, was announced in the September 1953 issue. An Editor’s Note inserted in the lower right corner of page 235 identified confirmation by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) of a Soviet-exploded hydrogen bomb as the reason for the Doomsday Clock’s reset.

“The announcement by the Soviet Government that it had explored a hydrogen bomb, and the admission by the AEC that an atomic test involving ‘both fission and thermonuclear reactions’ had been detected, came as this issue of the Bulletin was going to press.

“Readers will note that the hands of the Bulletin clock have moved forward.”

The hands of the Doomsday Clock were set the farthest from midnight in 1991. The reset trigger was the official end of the Cold War. Significant events, such as the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) by the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) Wednesday, July 31, 1991, and the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union Thursday, Dec. 26, 1991, signaled the close of the Cold War.

A caption on the cover of the December 1991 issue noted the momentous time reset: “The minute hand moves, farther than ever before.”

“The clock is in a new region because we feel the world has entered a new era. Never before has the Board of Directors moved the minute hand so far at one time. Conceived at the dawn of the Cold War, the clock was designed with a 15-minute range,” noted the Bulletin's editorial.

Confidence in the new era was so high that the minute hand was moved beyond the normal range. The Doomsday Clock enjoyed the optimistic time display for five years. The Bulletin’s Board of Directors decided to move the minute hand to 14 minutes to midnight in December 1995, the fiftieth anniversary of the Bulletin’s founding. The reset appeared on the cover of the January/February 1996.

Editor Mike Moore explained in his Editor’s Note, “On the Scale,” that the multiplicity of the current headlines drove the reset.

“But the clock has never been just an Armageddon metaphor. When the board resets the clock, it also looks toward the future, assesses trends, and takes into account the vision (or lack thereof) of policymakers, foreign and domestic,” Moore added.

As for Madam Secretary’s Doomsday Clock-themed episode, The Bulletin’s website welcomed questions about the Doomsday Clock and the online journal generated by exposure in popular culture. The site headline announced “Bulletin now also a TV star.”

Téa Leoni as Secretary of State Elizabeth McCord: BulletinOfTheAtomic @BulletinAtomic, via Twitter March 28, 2016

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Doomsday Clock set to current display of minus 3 minutes: Yury Tarasievich, Public Domain (CC0 1.0), via Wikimedia Commons @ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Doomsday_Clock_minus_3.png

Téa Leoni as Secretary of State Elizabeth McCord: BulletinOfTheAtomic @BulletinAtomic, via Twitter March 27, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/BulletinAtomic/status/714241133249847296

For further information:

Benedict, Kennette. “Doomsday Clockwork.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists > Features > Columnists. March 3, 2015.
Available @ http://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clockwork8052

BulletinOfTheAtomic‏ @BulletinAtomic. "Here we go: Madam Secretary's #doomsdayclock episode tonight: 8pm EDT." Twitter. March 27, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/BulletinAtomic/status/714241133249847296

DNAinfo Staff. “’Madam Secretary’ Show Gives Chicago Doomsday Clock Staff Reason to Party.” DNAinfo. March 28, 2016.
Available @ https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20160328/hyde-park/madam-secretary-show-gives-chicago-doomsday-clock-staff-reason-party

GeoBeats News. "Doomsday Clock set at 3 Minutes to Midnight." YouTube. Jan. 22, 2015.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2t179wbiR0

Comet 252P LINEAR Greens Northern Hemisphere Skies on March 29

Summary: Comet 252P LINEAR greens Northern Hemisphere skies for telescope observers at mid-northern latitudes Tuesday, March 29.

Comet 252P/LINEAR (upper right) poses near the Large Magellanic Cloud in southern skyscape: NASA History Office @NASA History, via Twitter March 20, 2016

On Tuesday, March 29, 2016, Comet 252P LINEAR greens Northern Hemisphere skies over mid-northern latitudes after first greening Southern Hemisphere skies with a brightness that could be seen without optical aids.

Photographs capture Comet 252P as a greenish mist. The greenness is visible via telescopes but not to unaided eyes. The green color is caused by fluorescing molecules of diatomic carbon (C2), emitted as carbon vapor by active comets. Solar ultraviolet light illuminates the diatomic carbon emissions.

Comet 252P/LINEAR, formally designated as Comet 252P, is sustaining a brightness that abruptly increased by 100 times above its expected value earlier in March. The increased brightness of Comet 252P, however, pales in comparison with other more luminous natural objects, such as the moon, night’s brightest natural object.

“Don’t expect Comet LINEAR to be obvious with a long tail,” J. Kelly Beatty, senior editor at Sky & Telescope, notes in the astronomy magazine’s online article Thursday, March 24, 2016. “Its light isn’t concentrated in a single point but instead is spread out in a soft round glow, larger than the Moon but many thousands of times dimmer.”

Best viewing in the Northern Hemisphere occurs close to the southern horizon at about 1 1/2 hours before sunrise. Sky & Telescope has designed a diagram that plots locations of Comet 252P, at eight hour intervals, along its northward path through Wednesday, March 30. The diagram represents southern horizon visibility of Comet 252P for mid-northern latitudes viewers.

Comet 252P’s path across Northern Hemisphere skies trails through easily recognizable landmarks. The moon, two distinctive constellations and two planets all share the sky with Comet 252P.

The constellations of Sagittarius and Scorpius appear as left and right flanks, respectively, of Comet 252P’s passage across Northern Hemisphere skies. Both constellations appear in the low southern sky before dawn.

The eight stars that form Sagittarius’s bow and arrow as well as the constellation’s teapot asterism (recognizable pattern of stars in Earth’s nighttime sky) hover distinctively above the southern horizon. An imaginary line extending from Sagittarius’s brightest star, Epsilon Sagittarii, at the base of the spout, links with Saturn, positioned to the right of Comet 252P.

Scorpius the Scorpion’s brightest star, Alpha Scorpii, shines for the unaided eye as a red supergiant, with a diameter 300 times that of Earth’s sun, in the constellatory scorpion’s heart. The star’s popular name, Antares, derives from Ancient Greek for “equal to Mars” and characterizes its Mars-like ruddy brightness.

To the right of Comet 252P, ruddy Antares forms an unmistakable triangle with reddish Mars, to the upper right, and pale yellow Saturn, to the upper left. Comet 252P roughly aligns horizontally with Saturn and Mars before dawn Tuesday. The comet’s more northerly climb in the sky by Thursday, March 31, places it on a diagonal alignment with Saturn and Antares.

The moon serves as competitor with and locator of Comet 252P for mid-northern latitude viewers during the last three days of March. The left side is illuminated for Northern Hemisphere viewers of the moon’s two phases at the end of March. Located to the right of Comet 252P, the moon runs glary interference with its illuminated quarter as the nearer side to the green comet.

On Tuesday, March 29, the moon is completing its waning gibbous phase. The moon’s sixth phase lights up 51 to 99 percent of the lunar disc. Tuesday’s visibility is at 80 percent.

On Wednesday, March 30, the moon hangs 3 degrees, or approximately two finger-widths of an outstretched arm, below Comet 252P’s lower right. Wednesday’s moon is phasing as the last, or third, quarter in the eight-phase lunar cycle. The last quarter illuminates 50 percent of the lunar disc. On Wednesday, visibility reaches 62 percent.

Comet 252P/LINEAR’s telltale name attests to its standing as the 252nd confirmed periodic (P) comet discovered by the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) project. Funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Air Force, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory site on the White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in New Mexico discovered Comet 252P Friday, April 7, 2000.

Comet 252P is being shadowed by a smaller comet, originally thought to be an asteroid. Comet P/2016 BA14 was discovered Friday, Jan. 22, 2016, by the University of Hawaii’s PanSTARRS (Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System) telescope at Haleakalā, Maui. Similarity in orbit with that of Comet 252P leads to the hypothesis of Comet P/2016 BA14 as a cometary fragment.

By April Fool’s Day, April 1, Comet 252P is fading from sight as its orbit takes it further away from Earth. Viewing in April’s early days requires a telescope.

Comet 252P/Linear's path across Earth's skies March 2016: The SETI Institute @SETIInstitute, via Twitter March 26, 2016

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Comet 252P/LINEAR (upper right) poses near the Large Magellanic Cloud in southern skyscape: NASA History Office @NASA History, via Twitter March 20, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/NASAhistory/status/711613277802000384

Comet 252P/Linear's path across Earth's skies March 2016: The SETI Institute @SETIInstitute, via Twitter March 26, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/SETIInstitute/status/713727760380915713

For further information:

Agle, D.C.; Dwayne Brown; Laurie Cantillo. "A 'Tail' of Two Comets." NASA > Topics > Topics A-Z > Comets > Feature. March 18, 2016.
Available @ https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/a-tail-of-two-comets

Astro Bob (Bob King). “See Comet 252P/LINEAR When It Flies By Earth.” AreaVoices. March 20, 2016.
Available @ http://astrobob.areavoices.com/2016/03/20/see-comet-252plinear-when-it-flies-by-earth/

The Editors of Sky Telescope. “Comet 252P/LINEAR Soars Into Predawn View This Week.” Sky and Telescope. March 24, 2016.
Available @ http://www.skyandtelescope.com/press-releases/how-to-spot-comet-252p-linear/

NASA History Office @NASAhistory. “Comet 252P/Linear is seen next to the Large Magellanic Cloud in this southern skyscape.” Twitter. March 20, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/NASAhistory/status/711613277802000384

The SETI Institute @SETIInstitute. "See a Green Comet in the Night Sky: Where and When to Look." Twitter. March 26, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/SETIInstitute/status/713727760380915713