Dec. 30 Strong Geomagnetic Storm; New Year's Eve Auroras Aplenty

Summary: NOAA's Dec. 30 strong geomagnetic storm (G3) upgrade should trigger New Year's Eve auroras aplenty, beyond the aurora's normal polar latitudes.

NOAA's coronal mass ejection data for end-of-December 2015 geomagnetic storms: NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center @NWSSWPC via Facebook Dec. 30, 2015

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is upgrading to a G3 strong geomagnetic storm watch for Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2015, while a G1 minor storm watch remains in effect for New Year’s Eve, Dec. 31.

NOAA’s forecast, published Tuesday, Dec. 29, at 17:43 Coordinated Universal Time (12:43 Eastern Standard Time), finds that impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun with the Earth’s magnetosphere is likely to occur soon after mid-UTC (Universal Coordinated Time) day on Dec. 30. The mid-day impact is expected to generate a G3 level geomagnetic response on Earth. Residual effects of the coronal mass ejection’s mid-day impact likely will linger into New Year’s Eve, at the lowest level of a G1 minor geomagnetic storm.

NOAA’s forecast also notes that visibility of the aurora may extend as far as Illinois and Oregon. A plus of geomagnetic storms is the expansion of visibility of the aurora beyond the colorful charged particles’ normal polar latitudes, north of the Arctic Circle (66 degrees North) and south of the Antarctic (60 degrees South) Circle.

According to the Aurora Notify website, auroral displays triggered by the Dec. 30 strong geomagnetic storm will color skies throughout northern Europe, Trans-Tasmania, Canada, Alaska and much of the northern United States, possibly as far south as Utah, for two successive nights through New Year’s Eve.

The coronal mass ejection responsible for 2015’s end-of-December geomagnetic storms is linked to an M1 solar flare of long duration that peaked on Dec. 28 at 12:45 Coordinated Universal Time (7:45 a.m. Eastern Standard Time). Dec. 28’s solar flare is responsible for a weak radio blackout, identified as R1 minor on NOAA’s five-level Radio Blackout Scale. A solar flare presents an intense flash of brightness as magnetic energy, built up in the solar atmosphere, is released.

NOAA’s Space Weather Scale for geomagnetic storms consists of five levels: G1 minor, G2 moderate, G3 strong, G4 severe and G5 extreme. Dec. 30’s upgraded G3 watch points to intermittent high frequency (HF) radio transmissions and satellite navigation as well as false alarm triggers and voltage problems on power system protection devices, increased drag on low-Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems for spacecraft.

New Year’s Eve’s G1 watch expects weak fluctuations for power systems, minor impacts on spacecraft operations and visibility of the aurora at high latitudes, such as Maine and northern Michigan.

The watches for Dec. 30 and 31 are issued in response to forecasts by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and results of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil (WSA-Enlil) physics-based model for predicting the impacts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar winds on the inner planets of Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars. WSA-Enlil specifically models effects on power systems, spacecraft operations and other human instrumentation.

Solar winds flow as constantly streaming spirals of charged particles from the sun. In fluctuations from ambient to strong, solar winds are able to disturb instrumentation systems on Earth.

As fast, strong eruptions, coronal mass ejections travel to Earth within three or four days. Coronal mass ejections are responsible for geomagnetic storms that produce auroras and disrupt technology, such as aviation systems, Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation systems and power grids.

New Year's Eve display may extend beyond aurora's normal polar latitudesNNL @PNNLab via Twitter Dec. 30, 2015

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

NOAA’s G3 graphic: NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center @NWSSWPC. "The G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming watch has been extended into 31 December as the anticipated CME has yet to arrive.": NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center @NWSSWPC via Facebook Dec. 30, 2015, @ https://www.facebook.com/NWSSWPC/photos/a.233373770047193.67030.232532740131296/1221219054595988/

New Year's Eve display may extend beyond aurora's normal polar latitudes: PNNL‏ @PNNLab via Twitter Dec. 30, 2015, @ https://twitter.com/PNNLab/status/682233578617307137

For further information:

"Auroras due December 30." Aurora Notify. Dec. 29, 2015.
Available @ http://auroranotify.com/2015/12/29/auroras-due-dec-30/

Bailey, Caitlin. "What is the WSA-ENLIL Model?" NASA Goddard Space Weather Research Center > Videos > Informational Videos.
Available @ http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/enlilvideo

"G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Likely 30 December." NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. Dec. 29, 2015.
Available @ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-strong-geomagnetic-storming-likely-30-december

NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center @NWSSWPC. "The G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming watch has been extended into 31 December as the anticipated CME has yet to arrive." Facebook. Dec. 30, 2015.
Available @ https://www.facebook.com/NWSSWPC/photos/a.233373770047193.67030.232532740131296/1221219054595988/

PNNL‏ @PNNLab. "Solar eruption may ring in New Year with massive Aurora Borealis display." Twitter. Dec. 30, 2015.
Available @ https://twitter.com/PNNLab/status/682233578617307137

Tomlinson, Stuart. "Northern Lights: Coronal mass ejection on the sun could produce Aurora borealis over Oregon." Oregon Live > Pacific Northwest News. Dec. 30, 2015.
Available A http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/12/northern_lights_coronal_mass_e.html