2015 Arctic Report Card: Full Swing Amplification of Climate Change

Summary: NOAA's 2015 Arctic Report Card finds full swing amplification of climate change, including reaching the highest average temperature since 1900.

The more-water, less-ice scenario of the Arctic's full swing amplification of climate change ~ Parallel cloud bands converge at horizon over landscape of ice floes, melt pools, and a polynya (area of persistent open water where sea ice would be expected) to the right on August 19, 2009: NOAA Photo Library/Collection of Dr. Pablo Clemente-Colon, Chief Scientist National Ice Center, CC BY 2.0, via Flickr

NOAA’s 2015 Arctic Report Card, presented Tuesday, Dec. 15, at the American Geophysical Union’s annual meeting in San Francisco, finds 2015 as a year of full swing amplification of climate change, including the highest average temperature since 1900.

At the news conference, NOAA oceanographer Jim Overland explains that the feared tipping point for sea ice does not appear to be among the critical points that have been passed as a result of ongoing contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. He foresees a next-after-next generation payoff from current emissions cuts.

“We do know that, with a reasonable mitigation scenario, that will slow down and have a big effect in the second half of the century,” Overland states. “The next generation may see an ice-free summer but, hopefully, their descendants will see a return of more sea ice later in the century.”

The tenth annual report of the state of the Arctic highlights such major findings by the report’s 72 researchers in 11 countries as low extents of sea ice, dominated primarily by first year ice; low snow cover in June; longer and more extensive Greenland ice sheet melt season; increasing summer sea surface temperatures (SST); increasing Arctic Ocean productivity, especially of phytoplankton blooms; mysteriously increasing tundra browning (declining greenness).

Guest essays cover such full swing Arctic amplifications of global warming as changes in fish and walrus behavior. Declining habitats are compelling walrus populations in northwest Alaska to haul out, or seek temporary rest from seafloor feeding bouts, on land rather than on sparse offshore ice. Overcrowding on land incites stampede-killing of calves and creates food scarcity as walruses are hauling out at greater distances from their food sources.

The Barents Sea, a marginal, or partially enclosed, sea adjacent to the Arctic Ocean, has been experiencing significant warming that is transforming the natural marine ecosystem. Movement of warm-water Atlantic Ocean and central Barent Sea fish species in a northward takeover of the northern and eastern Barents Sea is driving cold-water fish species out of the sea’s sub-arctic shelf. The poleward shift in fish communities increases competition for food and threatens local Arctic fish species, which are small, stationary, and benthivorous, or shallow shelf sea bottom feeders.

Rick Spinrad, NOAA’s chief scientist, emphasizes the dramatic pace of biological and physical changes in the Arctic environment as reflective of global warming: “We know this is due to climate change. And its impacts are creating major challenges for Arctic communities who depend on the region for sustenance and cultural identity. We also know what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.”

(left) change in seasonal tundra greenness 2014, compared to 2010; (right) Arctic land areas were record warm this year; image credit NOAA Climate. gov/Dan Pisut: NOAA @NOAA via Twitter Dec. 15, 2015

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

The more-water, less-ice scenario of the Arctic's full swing amplification of climate change ~ Parallel cloud bands converge at horizon over landscape of ice floes, melt pools, and a polynya (area of persistent open water where sea ice would be expected) to the right on August 19, 2009: NOAA Photo Library/Collection of Dr. Pablo Clemente-Colon, Chief Scientist National Ice Center, CC BY 2.0, via Flickr @ https://www.flickr.com/photos/noaaphotolib/5041458841/

(left) change in seasonal tundra greenness 2014, compared to 2010; (right) Arctic land areas were record warm this year; image credit NOAA Climate.gov/Dan Pisut: NOAA‏ @NOAA via Twitter Dec. 15, 2015, @ https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/676814194021396480

For further information:

American Geophysical Union. "FM15 Press Conference Arctic Report Card 2015." YouTube. Dec. 15, 2015.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Kz3g5ffds

Arctic Newswire. "The Arctic is now warmer than it's been since 1900." Alaska Daily News. Dec. 15, 2015.
Available @ https://www.adn.com/article/20151215/arctic-now-warmer-its-been-1900

"Arctic Report Card: Update for 2015." NOAA Arctic Research Program.
Available @ http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

Jacewicz, Natalie. "Restoring white Arctic will fall to future generations who never knew it." AGU Blogs > 2015 Fall Meeting. Dec. 15, 2015.
Available @ http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2015/12/15/restoring-white-arctic-will-fall-to-future-generations-who-never-knew-it/

Jeffries, M.O., J. Richter-Menge and J.E. Overland. "Executive Summary." NOAA Arctic Research Program > Arctic Report Card Update for 2015.
Available @ http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/exec_summary.html

Lindsey, Rebecca. "2015 Arctic Report Card: Visual Highlights." NOAA Climate.gov > News and features > News. Dec. 8, 2015.
Available @ https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/2015-arctic-report-card-visual-highlights

Lindsey, Rebecca."Arctic Continues to Be Significantly Warmer Than Average." NOAA Climate > News & Features. Dec. 9, 2015.
Available @ https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/arctic-continues-be-significantly-warmer-average

NOAA‏ @NOAA. "#ArcticReportCard 2015: Warmer air & sea, declining ice continue to trigger #Arctic change." Twitter. Dec. 15, 2015.
Available @ https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/676814194021396480

NOAPPMEL. "Arctic Report Card 2015." YouTube. Dec. 15, 2015.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0oLzNpEQ-w

"Warmer air and sea, declining ice continue to trigger Arctic change." NOAA News. Dec. 15, 2015.
Available @ http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/121515-arctic-report-card-warmer-air-and-sea-declining-ice-continue-to-trigger-arctic-change.html