Climate Change Hugely Challenges But Does Not Zap Global Food Security

Summary: Climate change hugely challenges global food security but U.S. leadership will strategize effectively, according to the USDA's December 2015 report.

photo by Africa Studio/Shutterstock: Dept. of Agriculture @USDA, via Twitter Dec. 2, 2015

A report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in December 2015 considers the impacts of climate change upon global food security as “a fundamental need” and also as “one of humanity’s most urgent and important challenges.”

Achieving global food security is an international objective that is included in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. The USDA report defines food security as “the ability to obtain and use sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food” and bases local and global food security upon the four factors of availability, accessibility, usability and stability.

Problems with any of these factors lead to food insecurity. The report notes the threat of food insecurity posed by increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations, with atmospheric carbon dioxide reaching levels today of about 400 parts per million (ppm), as compared to 280 parts per million in the late 18th century. The increased global greenhouse gas concentrations have upped the global average temperature since 1900 by about 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

“The assessment finds that climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes,” the report states, adding that “The risks are greatest for the global poor and in tropical regions.”

An intricate network of activities, from production to transportation, retailing, consumption, and disposal make up local, national, regional and global food systems. As the world’s largest food exporter, the United States is a highly involved player in local, national, regional and global food system activities.

As climate change progresses, the United States joins the complex food network in confronting food insecurity risks. For example, as food insecurity rises, the United States is likely to receive competing demands for agricultural exports from both cash-poor and cash-rich regions experiencing food insecurity. Also, the United States faces a changing balance in the nation’s ratio of exports to imports as climate change increasingly affects all parts of the United States and causes declines in crop yields, livestock production and revenues.

The report considers the impacts of two climate change scenarios upon global food security in the 21st century. A low-emissions model features extensive mitigation and carbon dioxide concentrations of about 421 parts per million by 2100. A high-emissions model presents rapidly increasing emissions, with carbon dioxide concentrations of 936 parts per million by 2100.

The two climate change scenarios evaluate the impacts of climate change on two crucial factors in global food security: global temperatures and sea levels. The global average temperature by 2050  increases by about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) for the low-emissions model and by about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) for the high-emissions model. The low-emissions model shows no temperature increase between 2050 and 2150 while the high-emissions model drives an increase of 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

Sea-level rises by mid-century (2046 to 2064) range from 0.17 to 0.32 meters (0.55 to 1.049 feet) in the low-emissions model and from 0.22 to 0.38 meters (0.22 to 124.67 feet) in the high-emissions model. By 2100, the low-emissions model shows sea-level rises of 0.26 to 0.55 meters (0.85 to 1.8 feet) whereas the high-emissions model yields rises of 0.45 to 0.82 meters (1.47 to 2.69 feet).

Climate Change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System represents a three-year effort by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to study the urgent challenge of global food security and the United States’ role in that security within the context of the climate-driven changes. The report incorporates research from the biophysical and the social sciences and involves input from over 30 experts at 19 institutions in four countries.

The report’s 22 co-authors conclude that climate-driven impacts on global food security are likely to affect the United States with yield losses, agricultural resource stresses and transportation infrastructure disruptions.

The scenario is not hopeless, as the authors add: “However, evidence suggests that the United States will continue to maintain a strong position as a major food exporter and importer. The United States has the opportunity to maintain a leadership position in developing new strategies and technologies for adapting food systems in food-insecure regions in a changing climate.”

Projected mid (left) and late (right) 21st century changes for low-emissions (RCP 2.6 top) and high-emissions (RCP 8.5, bottom) scenarios are compared with the period 1986-2005; figures produced using CMIP5 model output via Climate Explorer web application (available at http://climexp.knmi.nl/); Fig. 3.2 Projected changes in global surface temperature in M.E. Brown et al., Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (2015), page 30: Public Domain, via U.S. Department of Agriculture

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

photo by Africa Studio/Shutterstock: Dept. of Agriculture @USDA, via Twitter Dec. 2, 2015, @ https://twitter.com/USDA/status/672164883106955264

Projected mid (left) and late (right) 21st century changes for low-emissions (RCP 2.6 top) and high-emissions (RCP 8.5, bottom) scenarios are compared with the period 1986-2005; figures produced using CMIP5 model output via Climate Explorer web application (available at http://climexp.knmi.nl/); Fig. 3.2 Projected changes in global surface temperature in M.E. Brown et al., Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System (2015), page 30: Public Domain, via U.S. Department of Agriculture @ https://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/FullAssessment.pdf

For further information:

Brown, M.E., et al. "Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System." U.S. Department of Agriculture > Office of the Chief Economist > Climate Change. Dec. 2015.
Available @ http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/FullAssessment.pdf

Dept. of Agriculture @USDA. "Never has ag faced challenges of this magnitude. Food security in a changing climate." Twitter. Dec. 2, 2015.
Available @ https://twitter.com/USDA/status/672164883106955264

Fragoso, Alejandro Davila. "Our Future May Hold Less Food, Thanks To Climate Change." Climate Progress > Climate. Dec. 4, 2015.
Available @ http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/04/3728124/climate-change-puts-food-security-at-risk/

UCARConnect. "Climate Change and Food Security Report: A Collaboration of Experts." YouTube. Dec. 12, 2015.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF9j2LqhNHA

UCARConnect. "Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System." YouTube. Nov. 24, 2015.
Available @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v24wT16OU2w