Greenhouse Gases in Uncharted Territory of Non-Negotiable Physics Laws

Summary: Greenhouse gases are in the uncharted territory of non-negotiable physics laws, WHO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud tells the press on Nov. 9.

Symbolic 400 ppm CO2 level has been measured every spring since 2013; Map of carbon dioxide levels in mid-troposphere; data was collected in May 2013, when carbon dioxide levels reached their highest point in at least 800,000 years; highest concentrations, shown in yellow, are in the Northern Hemisphere; NASA Earth Observatory image by Rob Simmon and Jesse Allen with data courtesy the AIRS science team: Earth Observatory, Public Domain, via NASA

At a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on Nov. 9, 2015, World Health Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Michel Jarraud characterized 2014’s record-breaking concentrations of carbon dioxide at the symbolic 400 parts-per-million level as “uncharted territory” for human existence with adaptability controlled by the non-negotiable physics laws.

WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme showed atmospheric concentrations of the top three, long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in 2014 at levels representing respective increases of 143 percent, 254 percent and 121 percent over pre-industrial (defined at the baseline year of 1750) values. As a major atmospheric settler, carbon dioxide reached a globally averaged, record-breaking high of 397.7 parts-per-million (ppm) in 2014. In spring 2014, carbon dioxide concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere crossed over the 400 ppm level, a measurement that was duplicated in spring 2015.

The level of 400 ppm has significance as a level that has not occurred for over 800,000 years. The pre-industrial level of 278 ppm of carbon dioxide balanced fluxes between the atmosphere, the biosphere and the oceans.

WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, no. 11, released Monday, Nov. 9, 2015: United Nations @UN, via Twitter Nov. 10, 2015

Michel Jarraud explained: “We can’t see CO2. It is an invisible threat, but a very real one. It means hotter global temperatures, more extreme weather events like heat waves and floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and increased acidity of the oceans. This is happening now and we are moving into uncharted territory at a frightening speed.”

Released coincident with the Nov. 9 press conference, the WMO’s eleventh annual greenhouse gas bulletin opened with a section on the temperature sensitivity of water vapor as a short-lived greenhouse gas. Water vapor provides fast feedback to atmospheric concentrations of other greenhouse gases, especially of carbon dioxide as “the main driver of climate change.” Temperature increases inject more water vapor into the atmosphere from evaporating water.

The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2014 found that a dramatic scenario of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations, from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to a projected, uncharted territory value of 560 ppm, yielded a water vapor- and cloud-driven spike in thermal energy measuring three times that of long-lived greenhouse gases.

Michel Jarraud noted: “Excess energy trapped by CO2 and other greenhouse gases is heating up the Earth surface which leads to increase in atmospheric water vapour which in turn is generating/trapping even more heat.”

The top three long-lived greenhouse gases settle in the atmosphere from anthropogenic, or human, and natural sources. As the trio’s most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide accounts for 65 percent of the contribution by long-lived greenhouse gases to radiative forcing. The significant term of radiative forcing in climate change concerns the additional heat created or trapped in the atmosphere due to the presence of such variables as greenhouse gases.

Primary emissions of carbon dioxide are contributed by such human activities as fossil fuel combustion, cement production and land-use changes, such as deforestation, that affect the Earth’s surface reflectivity.

Natural sources, such as termites and wetlands, account for 40 percent of methane emissions. About 60 percent is contributed by such human activities as agriculture, biomass burning (burning of dead or live vegetation) and fossil fuel exploitation.

About 40 percent of nitrous oxide emissions come from anthropogenic sources, such as biomass burning, fertilizer use, and industrial processes.

WMO's 11th annual greenhouse gas bulletin includes NOAA's graphic showing 36 percent warming increase since 1990; it took about 240 years, from 1750 to 1990, for the AGGI (Annual Greenhouse Gas Index) to reach 100 percent: Earth System Research Laboratory, Public Domain, via NOAA

At the press conference, Michel Jarraud explained that WMO’s annual greenhouse gas bulletin has a timed release in advance of the United Nations’ annual climate change conference, scheduled in 2015 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 at Paris-Le Bourget Centre. The bulletin’s findings are intended to conform to the principle of policy-relevant, not policy-prescriptive, mandated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific intergovernmental body established by the WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The ascent to the symbolic 400 ppm level by carbon dioxide in spring 2014 has policy relevance for WMO and policy prescription for 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21).

Michel Jarraud stated: “Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years and in the ocean for even longer. Past, present and future emissions will have a cumulative impact on both global warming and ocean acidification. The laws of physics are non-negotiable.”

World Health Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Michel Jarraud, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Bulletin press conference, Monday, Nov. 9, 2015: WMO / OMM @WMO, via Twitter Nov. 9, 2015

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Symbolic 400 ppm CO2 level has been measured every spring since 2013; Map of carbon dioxide levels in mid-troposphere; data was collected in May 2013, when carbon dioxide levels reached their highest point in at least 800,000 years; highest concentrations, shown in yellow, are in the Northern Hemisphere; NASA Earth Observatory image by Rob Simmon and Jesse Allen with data courtesy the AIRS science team: Earth Observatory, Public Domain, via NASA @ http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82142

WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, no. 11, released Monday, Nov. 9, 2015: United Nations @UN, via Twitter Nov. 10, 2015, @ https://twitter.com/UN/status/663876269449216001

WMO's 11th annual greenhouse gas bulletin includes NOAA's graphic showing 36 percent warming increase since 1990; it took about 240 years, from 1750 to 1990, for the AGGI (Annual Greenhouse Gas Index) to reach 100 percent: Earth System Research Laboratory, Public Domain, via NOAA @ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

World Health Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Michel Jarraud, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Bulletin press conference, Monday, Nov. 9, 2015: WMO / OMM @WMO, via Twitter Nov. 9, 2015, @ https://twitter.com/WMO/status/663751016580382720

For further information:

Agence France Presse. "World in 'uncharted territory' as greenhouse gases hit new high: UN." Dawn > News. Nov. 10, 2015.
Available @ http://www.dawn.com/news/1218690/world-in-uncharted-territory-as-greenhouse-gases-hit-new-high-un

Nullis, Clare. "Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Hit Yet Another Record." World Meteorological Organization > Media > Press Release. Press Release No. 11. Nov. 9, 2015.
Available @ http://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-hit-yet-another-record

United Nations @UN. "Greenhouse gas concentrations hit yet another record - @WMOnews reports." Twitter. Nov. 9, 2015.
Available @ https://twitter.com/UN/status/663876269449216001

World Meteorological Organization. Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, no. 11: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations Through 2014. November 2015.
Available @ http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghg-bulletin_11_en.pdf

WMO / OMM @WMO. "SG Jarraud to #COP21. You can't negotiate with the laws of physics. CO2 will drive #climatechange for generations." Twitter. Nov. 9, 2015.
Available @ https://twitter.com/WMO/status/663751016580382720

World Meteorological Organization. "Press Conference: Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (Geneva, 9 November 2015)." United Nations Web TV.
Available @ http://webtv.un.org/meetings-events/www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/UPR/Pages/NRSession23.aspx/watch/wmo-press-conference-greenhouse-gas-bulletin-geneva-9-november-2015/4602659811001