2°C Warming Limit Possible If Major Economy Doubles Emissions Pledge

Summary: A study in Oct. 26's Nature Climate Change says a 2 degrees Celsius global warming limit is possible if a major economy doubles its emissions pledge.

Graphic identifies ten indicators of a warming world as atmospheric factors (air temperature near surface [troposphere]; humidity), oceanic factors (temperature over oceans; sea surface temperature; sea level ;sea ice; ocean heat content) and land factors (glaciers; snow cover; temperature over land).: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Climatic Data Center, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons

A 2°Celsius global warming limit goal is achievable if any one of the three major economies (China, European Union, United States) doubles the level of its emissions reduction pledge for 2030, according to a study published Oct. 26, 2015, in Nature Climate Change.

The study’s model calls for a 2030 target of 32 percent below 2010 output levels for China, a 2030 target of 67 percent below 1990 levels for the European Union’s 28 member states (EU28), or a 2025 target of 54 percent below 2005 levels for the United States. In a concept called diversity-aware leadership by the co-authors, leadership by a major economy ends negotiation battles over fair sharing.

“Now we have calculated how much a major economy would have to cut its greenhouse gas output if all the other countries would follow the emissions allocation scheme that is most favourable to them, so some base their reduction number on the equal per capita scheme, others include the historical emissions, and still the 2-degree limit is met,” explains Louise Jeffery, co-author and research associate at Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The diversity awareness leadership and bottom-up approach presented in the study timely tackles the sensitive subject of allocating emission reduction levels. An assessment issued by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) on Oct. 27 finds that current climate commitments, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), drawn up by 155 countries that account for around 90 percent of global emissions, would lead to an increase of around 3°C in global temperature.

Sebastian Oberthür, co-author and academic director of Belgium’s Institute for European Studies (IES), notes the challenges in emissions allocations that drove the study's ten co-authors to devise their model, based on databases of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific intergovernmental body under UN auspices: “If you look at what pledges the countries put on the table for Paris so far, it’s clearly not enough to keep warming within the internationally agreed 2-degree limit, hence the current ‘intended nationally determined contributions’ can only be regarded as a first step in the right direction.”

The study’s ten co-authors identify a major economy forerunner as critical to the outcome of the upcoming 2015 United Nations Climate Conference, scheduled for Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 in Le Bourget, France. Held annually since 1995 by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the 21st conference (COP21) plans to produce its first legally binding, universal agreement on climate after two decades of negotiations. The agreement’s target is strategies for achieving the 2°C warming limit, the global goal originally set under the UNFCCC.

As shown by the study’s Australian and European co-authors, strategizing outside the box of seeming fairness seems critical to keeping within the internationally agreed upon 2°C warming limit.

As co-author Sebastian Oberthür explains: “If we postpone action until we have universal agreement on a fair allocation of emissions reductions, the result will be fair only in that everybody will lose, because climate change will hit us all.”

Graphic pie charts showing 2010 GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions and mitigation contributions for 2025 and 2030 for all G20 countries are provided at Mitigation Contributions.org's interactive website (www.mitigation-contributions.org): Potsdam Institute @PIK_Climate, via Twitter Oct. 26, 2015

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

Graphic identifies ten indicators of a warming world as atmospheric factors (air temperature near surface [troposphere]; humidity), oceanic factors (temperature over oceans; sea surface temperature; sea level ;sea ice; ocean heat content) and land factors (glaciers; snow cover; temperature over land).: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Climatic Data Center, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons @ https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming.png

Graphic pie charts showing 2010 GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions and mitigation contributions for 2025 and 2030 for all G20 countries are provided at Mitigation Contributions.org's interactive website (www.mitigation-contributions.org): Potsdam Institute @PIK, via Twitter Oct. 26, 2015, @ https://twitter.com/PIK_Climate/status/658680763760685056

For further information:

Meinshausen, Malte, et al. "National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-awareness leadership." Nature Climate Change, vol. 5 (Oct. 26, 2015): 1098-1106.
Available @ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2826.html

Pascual, Katrina. "Warming Could Be Limited To 2°C If Major Economy Takes Lead In Climate Change Fight: Study." Tech Times. Oct. 26, 2015.
Available @ http://www.techtimes.com/articles/99904/20151026/warming-could-be-limited-to-2°c-if-major-economy-takes-lead-in-climate-change-fight-study.htm

Potsdam Institute‏ @PIK._"If a major economy takes the lead, warming could be limited to 2°C: new study @NatureClimate." Twitter. Oct. 26, 2015.
Available @ https://twitter.com/PIK_Climate/status/658680763760685056

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "If a major economy takes the lead, warming could be limited to 2° C: Allocating greenhouse gas emissions reductions will be key for the outcome of the world climate summit COP21 in Paris." Science Daily. Oct. 26, 2016.
Available @ http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151026125037.htm