49 Percent Decline in First Nations British Columbia Fisheries by 2050

Summary: Emission scenarios project up to a 49 percent decline in First Nations British Columbia fisheries by 2050, in a study published Jan. 13 in PLOS ONE.

Infographic on climate-related impacts on First Nations British Columbia fisheries: Lauren Weatherdon, no usage restrictions, via EurekAlert!

Low emission- and high emission-caused scenarios project up to a 49 percent decline in First Nations British Columbia fisheries by 2050 as climate change encourages poleward range shifts for 98 marine species, according to a study published online Jan. 13, 2016, in PLOS ONE.

“Climate change is likely to lead to declines in herring and salmon, which are among the most important species commercially, culturally, and nutritionally for First Nations,” explains Lauren Weatherdon, who conducted the study as a Master’s candidate in the University of British Columbia’s Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries.

“This could have large implications for communities who have been harvesting these fish and shellfish for millennia,” adds Weatherdon, who is now a Programme Officer at the United Nations Environment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) in Cambridge, England.

Both low and high emission scenarios identify First Nations commercial fisheries centering on Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) as experiencing the greatest relative impacts of climate change. A dynamic bioclimate envelope model (DBEM) projects Pacific herring catch potential declines of 26 percent and 49.2 percent under respective low and high emission scenarios. Two other species distribution modeling systems, AquaMaps and Maxent, give less severe predictions of 2.2 percent and 17 percent for low and high emission scenarios, respectively.

“Similarly, declines in salmon, which are cultural keystone species for First Nations on the Pacific Northwest Coast, are anticipated for all regions under both scenarios,” observe the co-authors in the study’s section on “Impacts on food, social and ceremonial catch potential.”

The catch potential declines in First Nations British Columbia fisheries impact First Nations’ landed revenue. Commercial herring and salmon fishery losses are expected to account for 89.3 to 90.2 percent of climate-caused revenue declines.

“These estimates do not account for impacts on auxiliary industries, such as fish processing and marketing, nor do they account for potential opportunities attained through an increased abundance of lower-latitude species,” explain the co-authors in the section on “Impacts on commercial catch potential and revenue.”

By 2050, sea surface temperatures increase by 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) in the low emission scenario and by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in the high emission scenario. The projected temperature increases are expected to lead to migrations by all 98 sample species, from current habitat warmer waters to poleward cooler waters, at a median rate of 10.3 to 18 kilometers (6.4 to 11 miles) each decade according to the respective low and high emission scenarios.

The study’s five co-authors identify the greatest migration-inducted losses in species richness as occurring along British Columbia’s southern coast, mainly at latitudes between 48 and 51 degrees north. The impact of the climate change-induced, poleward range shift extends beyond British Columbia’s Pacific Ocean coastline.

“Notably, changes in species richness were projected off the coasts of Alaska and California, which mark the northern and southern latitudinal extents of many of the species’ distributions included in this analysis,” note the five co-authors, whose affiliations yield a collaboration between Canada-based and United Kingdom-based researchers.

The sample of 98 commercially and culturally important marine species includes diadromous (migratory between freshwater and saltwater) and marine fish, invertebrates, and shellfish. The sample species are identified as harvest for food, social and ceremonial (FSC) purposes by 16 coastal First Nations selected for the study out of a total of 78 coastal First Nations. The study sites encompass the First Nations Fisheries Council of British Columbia’s seven coastal administrative regions.

Comparable environmental conditions of oceanic currents and wind-driven upwelling of cool, dense, nutrient-rich water toward the surface characterize coastal British Columbia. Nevertheless, the First Nations’ seven coastal British Columbia administrative regions overlap with five distinct ecological regions: the North British Columbia Coast’s Hecate Strait and Dixon Entrance; the North Coast’s Haida Gwaii archipelago; the Central Coast’s Queen Charlotte Sound, Queen Charlotte Strait, and Hecate Strait’s southern tip; the South Coast’s Strait of Georgia; and Vancouver Island’s west coast. The study regions’ ecological distinctions yield purposively diverse First Nations groups.

“First Nations are likely exposed to different climate-related impacts on fisheries due to the differing ecological and biogeographical characteristics of these regions and to differing traditional and commercial harvests,” note the five co-authors in their methodology section.

The article, entitled “Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities,” represents a pioneer study of the impacts of climate change on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries in indigenous communities.

“The Paris Agreement acknowledges that our efforts to tackle climate change must reflect the concerns of indigenous people,” observes Yoshitaka Ota, co-author and co-director of The Nippon Foundation-University of British Columbia Nereus Program, in a University of British Columbia media release issued coincident with the article’s online publication. “However, little is known about the impacts of climate change on coastal indigenous peoples. This study demonstrates the importance of understanding diverse socio-cultural interests.”

President Obama views salmon drying on a rack while meeting in Dillingham, Alaska, with local fishermen and their families (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images): PLOS ONE @PLOSONE via Twitter Jan. 13, 2016

Acknowledgment

My special thanks to talented artists and photographers/concerned organizations who make their fine images available on the internet.

Image credits:

climate-related fishery impacts: Lauren Weatherdon, no usage restrictions, via EurekAlert! @ http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/106636.php

President Obama views salmon drying on a rack while meeting in Dillingham, Alaska, with local fishermen and their families (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images): PLOS ONE @PLOSONE via Twitter Jan. 13, 2016, @ https://twitter.com/PLOSONE/status/687395920107941888

For further information:

Amos, Heather. "Climate change could cut First Nations fisheries' catch in half." UBC News > Media Release. Jan. 13, 2016.
Available @ http://news.ubc.ca/2016/01/13/climate-change-could-cut-first-nations-fisheries-catch-in-half/

"Climate change could cut First Nations fisheries' catch in half." EurekAlert! > Public Release. Jan. 13, 2016.
Available @ http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-01/uobc-ccc011216.php

InFocusFilmSchool. "First Nations Fisheries Council." YouTube. March 19, 2012.
Available @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIoA976t45c

McElroy, Justin. "Global warming could decrease B.C. First Nations' fish catch by half." Global News > Canada > News > Climate Change. Jan. 14, 2016.
Available @ http://globalnews.ca/news/2455399/global-warming-could-decrease-b-c-first-nations-fish-catch-by-halt/

PLOS ONE @PLOSONE. "Scientists say climate change is threatening the lifeblood of Canada's native people." Twitter. Jan. 13, 2016.
Available @ https://twitter.com/PLOSONE/status/687395920107941888

Weatherdon, Lauren V., et al. "Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations' Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities." PLOS ONE. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285
Available @ http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0145285